The calibration record
How accurate is Endcap®?
A running, public record of how well the people trading on Endcap actually call the CPG industry. Every resolved market feeds these numbers. Voided markets are excluded. Sims are included with disclosure below.
Markets resolved
0
Final outcomes, voided excluded.
Population Brier
-
Trade-weighted, all users. Lower is better.
Top-decile insider Brier
-
Awaiting insider sample (min 5 markets resolved).
Accuracy, 1 month out
-
No trades placed ≥30d before resolution yet.
Platform calibration
0 / 25 resolved tradesNeed 25+ trades on resolved markets to plot calibration. The curve will appear here as soon as enough markets have closed.
Accuracy by horizon
Once markets resolve with enough lead-time trades, this curve shows the share of trades that priced the eventual outcome over 50% at 4 hours, 12 hours, 1 day, 1 week, and 1 month before resolution.
By category
0 categoriesNo resolved markets yet.
Methodology
Brier score. For every buy trade on a resolved market we compute (predicted − actual)², where predicted is the probability the trader assigned to their chosen side and actual is 1 if that side won, 0 otherwise. The platform Brier is the sum of those values divided by the trade count. Zero is perfect; 0.25 is “always 50/50”; 1 is “always confidently wrong.” Lower is better.
Top-decile insider Brier. The trade-weighted average Brier of the best 10% of insider-tier traders, by Brier, among those with at least five resolved markets. This is the calibration tier we surface as a data product to buyers downstream.
Accuracy by horizon. For each of 4 hours, 12 hours, 1 day, 1 week, and 1 month before resolution, we count the share of trades placed at least that long before resolution whose post- trade YES price agreed with the eventual outcome (priced the winning side above 50%). Trades at exactly 50% are excluded so a coin-flip price doesn’t inflate the number.
Exclusions. Sells do not contribute (the prediction is the buy; the sell is liquidity management). Voided markets do not contribute. Sim accounts are included in aggregate numbers and disclosed where they appear on the leaderboard.
Source. These numbers are computed live from the platform database. For the per-market breakdown, see the individual market resolution page.
Endcap is the only place where the people who actually know the CPG industry are scored on the record.