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GLP-1ActiveCloses in 12 months on May 1, 2027
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Lilly vs Novo: bigger GLP-1 share gain in 2026: Tied within 1pp

64%YES chance
Yes
64%
No
36%

Now 64.3%

Resolution

Resolves to the manufacturer with the larger US GLP-1 prescription share gain across calendar 2026.

Source: https://www.iqvia.com/

Resolves by May 8, 2027.

Recent trades

  • YES@tatumkim
    25.1 sh@ 64%16 SP
  • YES@kaipatel
    110.5 sh@ 63%67 SP
  • NO@elliotalvarez
    216.1 sh@ 58%80 SP
  • NO@lanewalsh
    57.8 sh@ 68%18 SP
  • YES@micahbennett
    40.5 sh@ 70%28 SP
  • YES@blakeunderhill
    75.2 sh@ 54%39 SP
  • YES@blakevargas
    68.7 sh@ 68%46 SP
  • YES@sashapark
    30.8 sh@ 66%20 SP
  • YES@tatumchen
    44.3 sh@ 64%28 SP
  • YES@morgansantos
    62.5 sh@ 62%38 SP
  • NO@sashapark
    156.3 sh@ 59%58 SP
  • YES@briarlopez
    125.8 sh@ 66%80 SP
  • YES@rileykim
    64.2 sh@ 61%38 SP
  • NO@sashahayes
    129.9 sh@ 58%51 SP
  • NO@tatumkim
    51.2 sh@ 64%18 SP
  • YES@noelyoon
    60.3 sh@ 66%39 SP
  • YES@finleyyoon
    69.6 sh@ 63%43 SP
  • YES@caseyokafor
    131.7 sh@ 60%75 SP

Top holders

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Discussion

  • @wrenvargasWren Vargas27 days ago

    interesting angle.