GLP-1ActiveCloses in 12 months on May 1, 2027

Lilly vs Novo: bigger GLP-1 share gain in 2026: Tied within 1pp

36%YES chance
Yes
36%
No
64%

Now 36.5%

Resolution

Resolves to the manufacturer with the larger US GLP-1 prescription share gain across calendar 2026.

Source: https://www.iqvia.com/

Resolves by May 8, 2027.

Recent trades

  • YES@blakeunderhill
    56.8 sh@ 36%20 SP
  • NO@parkersantos
    81 sh@ 34%52 SP
  • YES@tatumkim
    25.1 sh@ 64%16 SP
  • NO@logantorres
    27.5 sh@ 38%17 SP
  • YES@parkersantos
    72.6 sh@ 39%27 SP
  • NO@harperyoon
    31.4 sh@ 36%20 SP
  • YES@kaipatel
    110.5 sh@ 63%67 SP
  • NO@darbyblake
    38.6 sh@ 37%24 SP
  • NO@noelyoon
    49.9 sh@ 39%30 SP
  • NO@elliotalvarez
    216.1 sh@ 58%80 SP
  • NO@kaiunderhill
    62.7 sh@ 41%36 SP
  • NO@tatumkim
    45.6 sh@ 44%25 SP
  • YES@parkerokafor
    74.1 sh@ 46%33 SP
  • NO@lanewalsh
    57.8 sh@ 68%18 SP
  • YES@alexalvarez
    43.2 sh@ 43%18 SP
  • YES@micahbennett
    40.5 sh@ 70%28 SP
  • YES@remymoss
    14.9 sh@ 41%6 SP
  • NO@tatumwalsh
    37.2 sh@ 40%22 SP
  • YES@blakeunderhill
    75.2 sh@ 54%39 SP
  • YES@blakevargas
    68.7 sh@ 68%46 SP
  • NO@skylerpowell
    56.2 sh@ 42%32 SP
  • YES@remymoss
    70.2 sh@ 44%30 SP
  • NO@noelyoon
    32.6 sh@ 41%19 SP
  • NO@lanechen
    21.1 sh@ 43%12 SP
  • YES@sashapark
    30.8 sh@ 66%20 SP
  • YES@taylorvargas
    51.9 sh@ 44%22 SP
  • NO@morgansantos
    20.5 sh@ 41%12 SP
  • YES@tatumchen
    44.3 sh@ 64%28 SP
  • NO@rileykim
    49.4 sh@ 42%28 SP
  • NO@grayhale
    55.4 sh@ 44%30 SP
  • NO@skylerpowell
    17.2 sh@ 47%9 SP
  • NO@blakeunderhill
    37.3 sh@ 48%19 SP
  • YES@morgansantos
    62.5 sh@ 62%38 SP
  • YES@averylopez
    85.8 sh@ 50%41 SP
  • NO@sashapark
    156.3 sh@ 59%58 SP
  • NO@taylorvargas
    56.7 sh@ 46%30 SP
  • NO@darbyblake
    82.9 sh@ 48%41 SP
  • NO@skylerunderhill
    32.2 sh@ 53%15 SP
  • YES@micahbennett
    39.4 sh@ 54%21 SP
  • YES@briarlopez
    125.8 sh@ 66%80 SP
  • YES@elliotalvarez
    21.3 sh@ 52%11 SP
  • NO@parkersantos
    81.3 sh@ 51%38 SP
  • YES@finleyyoon
    27.5 sh@ 55%15 SP
  • YES@rileykim
    64.2 sh@ 61%38 SP
  • NO@lanewalsh
    37.6 sh@ 54%17 SP
  • NO@sashahayes
    129.9 sh@ 58%51 SP
  • YES@frankieblake
    40.2 sh@ 56%22 SP
  • NO@rileykim
    48.9 sh@ 54%22 SP
  • NO@lanejensen
    34.9 sh@ 56%15 SP
  • NO@tatumkim
    51.2 sh@ 64%18 SP

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