Lilly vs Novo: bigger GLP-1 share gain in 2026: Tied within 1pp
36%YES chance
Yes
36%
No
64%
Now 36.5%
Resolution
Resolves to the manufacturer with the larger US GLP-1 prescription share gain across calendar 2026.
Source: https://www.iqvia.com/
Resolves by May 8, 2027.
Recent trades
- YES@blakeunderhill56.8 sh@ 36%20 SP
- NO@parkersantos81 sh@ 34%52 SP
- YES@tatumkim25.1 sh@ 64%16 SP
- NO@logantorres27.5 sh@ 38%17 SP
- YES@parkersantos72.6 sh@ 39%27 SP
- NO@harperyoon31.4 sh@ 36%20 SP
- YES@kaipatel110.5 sh@ 63%67 SP
- NO@darbyblake38.6 sh@ 37%24 SP
- NO@noelyoon49.9 sh@ 39%30 SP
- NO@elliotalvarez216.1 sh@ 58%80 SP
- NO@kaiunderhill62.7 sh@ 41%36 SP
- NO@tatumkim45.6 sh@ 44%25 SP
- YES@parkerokafor74.1 sh@ 46%33 SP
- NO@lanewalsh57.8 sh@ 68%18 SP
- YES@alexalvarez43.2 sh@ 43%18 SP
- YES@micahbennett40.5 sh@ 70%28 SP
- YES@remymoss14.9 sh@ 41%6 SP
- NO@tatumwalsh37.2 sh@ 40%22 SP
- YES@blakeunderhill75.2 sh@ 54%39 SP
- YES@blakevargas68.7 sh@ 68%46 SP
- NO@skylerpowell56.2 sh@ 42%32 SP
- YES@remymoss70.2 sh@ 44%30 SP
- NO@noelyoon32.6 sh@ 41%19 SP
- NO@lanechen21.1 sh@ 43%12 SP
- YES@sashapark30.8 sh@ 66%20 SP
- YES@taylorvargas51.9 sh@ 44%22 SP
- NO@morgansantos20.5 sh@ 41%12 SP
- YES@tatumchen44.3 sh@ 64%28 SP
- NO@rileykim49.4 sh@ 42%28 SP
- NO@grayhale55.4 sh@ 44%30 SP
- NO@skylerpowell17.2 sh@ 47%9 SP
- NO@blakeunderhill37.3 sh@ 48%19 SP
- YES@morgansantos62.5 sh@ 62%38 SP
- YES@averylopez85.8 sh@ 50%41 SP
- NO@sashapark156.3 sh@ 59%58 SP
- NO@taylorvargas56.7 sh@ 46%30 SP
- NO@darbyblake82.9 sh@ 48%41 SP
- NO@skylerunderhill32.2 sh@ 53%15 SP
- YES@micahbennett39.4 sh@ 54%21 SP
- YES@briarlopez125.8 sh@ 66%80 SP
- YES@elliotalvarez21.3 sh@ 52%11 SP
- NO@parkersantos81.3 sh@ 51%38 SP
- YES@finleyyoon27.5 sh@ 55%15 SP
- YES@rileykim64.2 sh@ 61%38 SP
- NO@lanewalsh37.6 sh@ 54%17 SP
- NO@sashahayes129.9 sh@ 58%51 SP
- YES@frankieblake40.2 sh@ 56%22 SP
- NO@rileykim48.9 sh@ 54%22 SP
- NO@lanejensen34.9 sh@ 56%15 SP
- NO@tatumkim51.2 sh@ 64%18 SP
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