Will a new sober-curious functional beverage brand reach $10M ARR by EOY 2026?

Resolution

Resolves YES if any non-alcoholic adult beverage brand whose first commercial retail availability was on or after 2024-01-01 publicly reports (or is reported by Bloomberg / WSJ / Reuters / BevNET / Modern Retail citing the company or named investors) annualized run-rate revenue of $10M USD or more, at any point between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31 11:59pm PT. Brand must be primarily positioned in the sober-curious / functional NA category (i.e. non-alc spirits, NA aperitifs, NA cocktails, kava, mood drinks). Existing 2023-or-earlier brands (Athletic Brewing, Ghia, Seedlip, etc.) do not count even if they cross the threshold. Trailing 12-month revenue or last-month run-rate both acceptable.

Resolves by Mar 18, 2027.